Well, well. What an interesting show. I'm deeply surprised Ron Howard got Best Director. Not that I neccessarily think he's undeserving, I'm just surprised. I thought Robert Altman was a shoe-in as a Hollywood favorite. But "Gosford Park" got its one award, which is what I figured would happen. David Lynch will win his one day--I have hope.

As for Best Picture, well, I'm not super happy, but at least it wasn't "Gladiator." =) Of course I really hoped LotR would win, but I knew it wouldn't. No matter how good it is, it's a fantasy film. They just don't win. And LotR had the best chance being based on a well established and loved epic, and the fact it was a darn well-made movie in general. But at least it has two more chances with the next two releases. "Beautiful Mind" was a good film, I liked it. I knew it'd win because "important movies" tend to do that.

I am not happy with Best Foreign Language film. A perfect example of how real-life politics will usually win out. Because it's an "important film" about war torn Bosnia, "No Man's Land" beat out the more risky and artistic "Amilie." In fact, nothing risky won this year. "Momento" was shut out in the two areas it shinned at, Editing and Screenplay, for example. I would have been happy for "Ghost World" if it'd gotten Adapted Screenplay ahead of LotR instead of "Beautiful Mind." And it's not because of "Beautiful Mind"'s controversy. You cannot make a movie about a real-life person without leaving some out and embeleshing other parts. Well, OK, "Ali" didn't, that I know of, but I still don't fault "Beautiful Mind" for its inaccuracies. I do fault it for being such a safe and predictable choice. Will we ever see risky and surprise movies like "American Beauty" and "Silence of the Lambs" win again? Last year "Traffic" was robbed by the "epic" *coff coff* "Gladiator," and this year LotR and even "Moulin Rouge" got...OK, not robbed per se, but pilfered. I would have liked to have seen the unexpected and very risky "Moulin" beat out "Beautiful." I'm just unhappy "A.I." wasn't even nominated. Like "2001: A Space Odessy," time will show "A.I." to be one of the greatest movies of the 20th century and a seminal movie of the sci-fi genre.

This year I was 46% accurate. Yikes! I got 60% right of the top five categories, and if I add into the mix the movies I WANTED to win and did (I can do that beacause it's my site, darn it *grin*) then I got 58%. The last few weeks I started getting positive about Halle Berry, but it got too close for me to change my pick.

I'm really surprised at Jennifer Connelly. For someone who's acted most her life, her acceptance was deplorable. Stillted and monotone. One would have thought she was on Prozac or something. Put next to her Halle Berry's acceptance and you see night and day. Halle brought tears to my eyes with her sincere and overwhelmed reaction. Made me feel great for her. I just really hope her (and Denzel's) wins weren't because of race. I haven't seen "Traning Day" nor "Monster's Ball," (I really want to!,) but I understand they had great performances.

And speaking of the show itself, Whoopi did a MUCH better job than I expected. Though her NY tribute at the end kind of fell a little flat and anti-climactic. But then, the show's farewell has pretty much always been weak. I need to go back and watch Gwyneth Paltrow's reaction when "Tenenbaums" didn't win screenplay, I understand it was pretty sour and I missed it. And Lynch and Altman saying something to each other when Howard was announced for Director. I swear, Lynch will get his deserved award one day.

Anyway, not a bad show.

(written a few months prior to the ceremony...) Over the past 15 years that I've avidly paid attention to the Academy Awards, not just as a fan of a movie hoping to win something big, but actually to the Awards themselves and their meaning or implications, I've had a pretty decent track record in predicting the winners. The top 5 biggies I range about a 60 to 70% accuracy.

(Last year's Gladiator debacle threw my average down. I should have seen it coming, but I was being too optimistic in thinking the Academy would give it the lack of credibility it deserved.)

This is going to be a tough year. Some categories have obvious, to me, winners--but most of the rest I'm having to really debate with myself on. Especially after having gotten burned last year.

(I would love to ball-peen hammer the kneecaps of everyone who voted Gladiator for Best Visual Effects, not to mention Picture and Director.)

I must be careful to be pessimistic this time around.

If you'd like to discuss, debate, compare the picks, feel free to contact me at cinema@celticbear.com

Click HERE for more info on my feelings about Gladiator. (still seething)

And here are some great links!

Homepage of the President of "Online Academies"
www.geocities.com/oscarguy/

The Official Academy Awards site
www.oscar.com/oscar_home.html